EXPLAINERNews|Donald TrumpHow much extra power would a government shutdown give Trump?Trump could use executive power to reshape federal agencies and force layoffs during a shutdown, experts say.

The United States faces a potential federal government shutdown on Sun, Oct 1, 2025, due to ongoing negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Central to this issue is the debate over the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and Medicaid funding adjustments.

Democrats aim to secure an extension of ACA subsidies, arguing that their expiration could jeopardize insurance affordability for millions. Additionally, they seek to reverse recent Medicaid cuts. In contrast, Republicans advocate for a bill that would extend federal spending at current levels without additional provisions.

Executive Authority and Potential Impacts

The Trump administration, led by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under Russell Vought, has exercised considerable executive authority in financial matters. This includes actions such as the cancellation of foreign aid and withholding domestic spending. The administration has instructed agencies to consider issuing "reduction in force" notices, targeting programs not aligned with presidential priorities or lacking mandatory funding.

In the event of a shutdown, certain essential services, including Social Security payments and Medicare, would continue. Essential functions such as border protection and air traffic control are expected to remain operational. However, past shutdowns have seen disruptions in some areas, such as delays caused by unpaid TSA staff and air traffic controllers.

The Trump administration has already reduced the federal workforce by approximately 200,000, with projections suggesting further reductions to 300,000 by the end of the year. The OMB's guidance to consider layoffs highlights potential impacts on agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Voice of America.

Experts remain divided on the legality of potential layoffs, which require adherence to specific procedures, such as a 60-day notification. Mandatory spending programs, including Social Security, remain unaffected by shutdowns, and essential services are expected to continue, albeit with potential disruptions.

The Trump administration's approach suggests a focus on maintaining priorities such as immigration enforcement while potentially reducing resources in other areas. Past shutdowns have illustrated the administration's discretion in defining "essential" services, as demonstrated by the handling of national parks.

Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.