News|EnergyUS and China provoke sharp fall in global outlook for renewable powerLowered support means capacity now expected to grow to no more than 4,600GW by 2030, 900GW lower than 2024 estimate.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for renewable power growth by 2030, indicating a decrease due to weaker projections in the United States and China.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for renewable power growth by 2030, indicating a decrease due to weaker projections in the United States and China.
Updated Renewable Capacity Projections
The IEA now anticipates that total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, a reduction from the previous estimate of 5,500 GW, as detailed in a report published on Tue, Oct 10, 2023.
The revised forecast suggests challenges in achieving the global target of tripling renewable energy use by 2030. Key factors include the early phase-out of federal tax incentives for renewable energy in the US, as per the recent legislative changes, and the shift in China from guaranteed electricity prices to competitive auctions that limit profits for renewable projects.
Despite a slowdown in China and the US, the IEA highlights positive developments in other regions. India is projected to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity expected to increase 2.5 times over the next five years. Additionally, forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa have been raised by 25%, with positive outlooks for Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain.
The revised forecast suggests challenges in achieving the global target of tripling renewable energy use by 2030.
Workers install panels at a newly opened industrial-scale solar power plant in Karbala, Iraq, September 17, 2025 [Anmar Khalil/AP Photo]
Solar power continues to lead in the advancement of renewable energy, accounting for approximately 80% of global growth over the past five years, followed by wind, water, biomass, and geothermal power.
The outlook for offshore wind power has been revised downward due to recent policy changes in key countries, notably the US, which has halted certain projects under development.
Geopolitical and Economic Implications
The IEA emphasizes the strategic benefits of increasing renewable capacity, particularly in the current geopolitical climate. The expansion of renewable energy has significantly reduced the need for fuel imports in many countries, thereby enhancing energy diversification and security.
Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.