News|International TradeAs Trump and Xi near deal, few see letup in heated US-China rivalryExpectations are modest for how far a US-China deal will go to resolve the differences between the superpowers.

Gyeongju, South Korea – As US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping prepare to meet for the first time since 2019, Washington and Beijing appear poised to reach a deal to lower the temperature of their fierce rivalry.

But while Trump and Xi are widely expected to de-escalate US-China tensions in South Korea on Thursday, expectations are modest for how far any agreement will go to resolve the myriad points of contention between the world’s two largest economies.

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Some of the proposed measures involve issues that have only arisen within the last few weeks, including China’s plan to impose strict export controls on rare earths from December 1.

Whatever Trump and Xi agree to on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, there is little doubt that Washington and Beijing will continue to butt heads as they jockey for influence in a rapidly shifting international order, according to analysts.

“I have modest expectations for this meeting,” said Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore.

“I think, no matter what happens this week, we haven’t seen the end of economic tensions, tariff threats, export controls and restrictions, and the use of unusual levers like digital rules,” Elms told Al Jazeera.

A man films the logo of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit (APEC) outside of the venue in Gyeongju, South Korea, Tuesday, October 28, 2025 [Lee Jin-man/AP] But with the US having no alternative to Chinese rare earths and minerals in the near-term, Washington and Beijing could put aside their differences for longer than past trade truces, Guo said.

Advertisement “This means reduced downside risks in US-China relations for at least a year, or perhaps even longer,” he said.

Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University who worked on China at the CIA and the White House’s National Security Council, said that while he is optimistic the summit will produce “positive tactical results”, it will not mark the end of the trade war.

“A comprehensive trade deal is still not available,” Wilder told Al Jazeera.

“Bessent and his Chinese counterpart will continue negotiating in hopes of a more lasting agreement if and when President Trump visits China next year.”

Trump and Xi’s go-to language on the US-China relationship itself points to the gulf between the sides.

While Trump often complains about the US being “ripped off” by China, Xi has repeatedly called for their relations to be defined by “mutual respect” and “win-win cooperation”.

“The United States should treat China in a way that China considers respectful,” said Wang of Renmin University.

“They have to respect China, and if they don’t, then the United States will receive an equal response until they become able to respect others,” he added.

Based on reporting by Al Jazeera.