The sea is higher than we think: Millions more at risk of rising sea levels, researchers say
A recent study published in the journal Nature reveals that previous assessments of coastal water heights have been underestimated by an average of 1 foot (30 centimeters) in 90% of examined cases. This discrepancy primarily affects regions in the Global…
A recent study published in the journal Nature reveals that previous assessments of coastal water heights have been underestimated by an average of 1 foot (30 centimeters) in 90% of examined cases. This discrepancy primarily affects regions in the Global South, the Pacific, and Southeast Asia, while it is less pronounced in Europe and along the Atlantic coasts.
The study attributes this underestimation to differences in how sea and land altitudes are measured. According to Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University & Research, inaccuracies arise at the intersection of sea and land due to unaccounted factors when using satellite and land-based models. Lead author Katharina Seeger from the University of Padua noted that many assessments assume a baseline sea level of zero meters, which is incorrect in some regions, such as the Indo-Pacific, where it can be up to 3 feet (1 meter) higher.
Implications of Adjusted Coastal Height Baseline
The study suggests that if sea levels rise by slightly more than 3 feet (1 meter) by the end of the century, as projected by some studies, this could result in 37% more land being inundated, affecting an additional 77 million to 132 million people.
People navigate a flooded street following incessant rains in Feni, Bangladesh, Aug. 22, 2024 (AP Photo)
The study attributes this underestimation to differences in how sea and land altitudes are measured.
The discrepancy is particularly significant for island nations in the Pacific region. The study highlights the real-world impacts of these findings, as evidenced by the retreating shorelines and eroded beaches observed in Vanuatu.
According to Ben Strauss, CEO of Climate Central, many studies have incorrectly assumed that the zero level in land elevation datasets corresponds to water levels, leading to inaccurate assessments.
Yahir Mayoral and Emily Camacho walk amid the rubble of their grandmother's home, destroyed by flooding, El Bosque, Mexico, Nov. 30, 2023 (AP Photo)
Some scientists, such as Gonéri Le Cozannet from the French geological survey, suggest the implications of the study might be overstated, noting that local planners are generally aware of their coastal challenges. However, the study underscores that the current understanding of ocean changes could impact planning for coastal and climate-related risks.
The findings coincide with a new UNESCO report highlighting significant gaps in understanding the ocean's carbon absorption, suggesting that climate projections may require adjustments.
Based on reporting by Africanews.